A Trump Ban on Flavored E-Cigarettes Will Cost Him the 2020 Election: Data on 12 Important Swing States

Share on Facebook
Tweet this Story
Pin this Image

Posted by Paul Blair on Wednesday, September 18th, 2019, 5:49 PM PERMALINK

Over the past week, President Donald Trump has been considering an outright ban on nearly every electronic cigarette and vapor product on the market. Not only would the implementation of a flavor ban be disastrous for public health, but it may cost Trump the election in 2020.

In a piece for the Washington Examiner, I explained:

"Internal polling conducted by Americans for Tax Reform in October 2016, just five months after the Obama administration announced their own timeline for a de facto e-cigarette ban, found that 4 out of 5 adult vapers' vote-moving issue was where a politician stood on the issue of taxing, regulating, and banning e-cigarettes."

Link to poll.

What might that mean in 2020? If you look at the 12 states which will likely determine the outcome of the election, based on the margin of victory or loss by Donald Trump in 2016 and changing political currents, there are at least 4.15 million adults in battleground states that use electronic cigarettes, according to FDA-funded survey data. Those states include Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, Arizona, and Nevada.

Here's how that breaks down per state (click to enlarge): 

(Click to enlarge an excel version of this graphic.)

If voter turnout holds flat in 2020 over 2016, there are roughly 2.55 million vaper voters scattered across these 12 key battleground states. The data on the number of adult vapers may underestimate the true figure because adult use of these products has increased in the last two years. To ignore that these adults have used e-cigarettes to quit smoking cigarettes, something that they're proud of and strongly believe in would be among the biggest political miscalculations of the presidential campaign in 2020. Not only do these people rightly attribute the use of flavored nicotine products to saving their lives, but their family members, friends, and neighbors have likely heard their stories as well.

If Trump wants to depress voter turnout or turn voters away from his winning message in states where the margin of victory could be just a few thousand votes, banning flavored nicotine e-cigarettes would be a great way to go about it.

More from Americans for Tax Reform

×