- There are now 60 House Democrats elected in districts that voted for Bush in 2004.
- There are now only nine House Republicans elected in districts that voted for Kerry in 2004.
- Note the larger Bush margins than Kerry margins. Those 60 Democrats are in more difficult districts than the nine Republicans.
- If in 2008 the Republicans only won those districts that performed 58% or more for Bush in 2004 they would pick up 20 seats.
- If in 2008, the Republicans only win those districts that performed 55% or more for Bush in 2004, they would pick up 33 seats.
- Remember, when Bush won in 2004 it was with only 51% of the vote. This is a low party vote for president, not a Reagan landslide number.
|
60 Democrats in Districts Carried by Bush
|
|||||
|
U.S. Rep.
|
District
|
Bush %
|
U.S. Rep.
|
District
|
Bush %
|
|
Chet Edwards
|
TX-17
|
70%
|
Ruben Hinojosa
|
TX-15
|
55%
|
|
Gene Taylor
|
MS-4
|
68%
|
Solomon Ortiz
|
TX-27
|
55%
|
|
Jim Matheson
|
UT-2
|
66%
|
Steve Kagen
|
WI-8
|
55%
|
|
Ike Skelton
|
MO-4
|
64%
|
Allen Boyd
|
FL-2
|
54%
|
|
Nick Lampson
|
TX-22
|
64%
|
Bob Etheridge
|
NC-2
|
54%
|
|
Earl Pomeroy
|
ND-AL
|
63%
|
Harry Mitchell
|
AZ-5
|
54%
|
|
Brad Ellsworth
|
IN-8
|
62%
|
Jason Altmire
|
PA-4
|
54%
|
|
Bart Gordon
|
TN-6
|
60%
|
Jerry McNerney
|
CA-11
|
54%
|
|
Bud Cramer
|
AL-5
|
60%
|
John Hall
|
NY-19
|
54%
|
|
Chris Carney
|
PA-10
|
60%
|
Kristen Gillibrand
|
NY-20
|
54%
|
|
Stephanie Herseth
|
SD-AL
|
60%
|
Sanford Bishop
|
GA-2
|
54%
|
|
Baron Hill
|
IN-9
|
59%
|
Tim Mahoney
|
FL-16
|
54%
|
|
Dan Boren
|
OK-2
|
59%
|
Bart Stupak
|
MI-1
|
53%
|
|
Nancy Boyda
|
KS-2
|
59%
|
Gabrielle Giffords
|
AZ-8
|
53%
|
|
Rick Boucher
|
VA-9
|
59%
|
Henry Cuellar
|
TX-28
|
53%
|
|
Alan Mollohan
|
WV-1
|
58%
|
John Tanner
|
TN-8
|
53%
|
|
Ben Chandler
|
KY-6
|
58%
|
Mike Arcuri
|
NY-24
|
53%
|
|
Charlie Melancon
|
LA-3
|
58%
|
Nick Rahall
|
WV-3
|
53%
|
|
Lincoln Davis
|
TN-4
|
58%
|
Marion Berry
|
AR-1
|
52%
|
|
Tim Holden
|
PA-17
|
58%
|
Carol Shea-Porter
|
NH-1
|
51%
|
|
Heath Shuler
|
NC-11
|
57%
|
Charlie Wilson
|
OH-6
|
51%
|
|
John Spratt
|
SC-5
|
57%
|
Mike Ross
|
AR-4
|
51%
|
|
Zack Space
|
OH-18
|
57%
|
Tim Walz
|
MN-1
|
51%
|
|
Joe Donnelly
|
IN-2
|
56%
|
Vic Snyder
|
AR-2
|
51%
|
|
Melissa Bean
|
IL-8
|
56%
|
Brian Baird
|
WA-3
|
50%
|
|
Mike McIntyre
|
NC-7
|
56%
|
Darlene Hooley
|
OR-5
|
50%
|
|
Collin Peterson
|
MN-7
|
55%
|
Dennis Cardoza
|
CA-18
|
50%
|
|
Dennis Moore
|
KS-3
|
55%
|
Leonard Boswell
|
IA-3
|
50%
|
|
Jim Marshall
|
GA-8
|
55%
|
Loretta Sanchez
|
CA-47
|
50%
|
|
John Salazar
|
CO-3
|
55%
|
Tim Bishop
|
NY-1
|
49%
|
|
8 Republicans in Districts Carried by Kerry
|
||
|
U.S. Rep.
|
District
|
Kerry %
|
|
Christopher Shays
|
CT-4
|
54%
|
|
Mark Kirk
|
IL-10
|
53%
|
|
Michael Castle
|
DE-AL
|
53%
|
|
Dave Reichert
|
WA-8
|
51%
|
|
Heather Wilson*
|
NM-1
|
51%
|
|
Jim Gerlach
|
PA-6
|
51%
|
|
Charlie Dent
|
PA-15
|
50%
|
|
James Walsh
|
NY-25
|
50%
|
| *indicates official election results not in | ||