ATR Analysis of Donald Trump Tax Reform Plan

GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump released details of his tax reform plan today. It features a system with much lower tax rates than current law, and a broadened tax base for high income earners.
“Trump’s plan is certainly consistent with the Taxpayer Protection Pledge,” said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform. “Trump has said he opposes net tax hikes and has made clear that the real problem is spending. This plan is a reform, not a tax hike.”
The plan is not a tax cut, but is rather intended to be revenue neutral under a dynamic score.
Basic elements of the Trump tax plan include:
Carried interest: The plan "ends the current tax treatment of carried interest for speculative partnerships that do not grow businesses or create jobs and are not risking their own capital." Partnerships that do not speculate but rather buy hard assets for the long run will not face a tax increase – for example, private equity firms.
Private equity firms do not speculate, but rather grow businesses and create jobs. Most importantly, private equity partnerships risk their own capital, namely the capital provided by the pension funds, colleges, and charities which invest in them for long term investment returns. These types of investments are vital for workers with traditional pensions, for the colleges Americans send their children to, and for the charities they support.
The carried interest tax hike in the Trump plan is intended to only apply to the type of funds Trump has always said they would apply to: "hedge fund guys." Americans for Tax Reform opposes any change to the tax treatment of carried interest -- including those on hedge fund guys -- but is pleased that the usual target of this left wing ivory tower tax hike proposal--private equity partnerships -- is held harmless in the Trump plan. This is not the case, for example, in Governor Jeb Bush's plan.
As the rest of the GOP field prepares to release their tax plans, they should keep in mind the Left's long term goal to tax ALL capital gains as ordinary income. That's why this carried interest tax hike idea originated in the bowels of leftist academia, and is nearly universally supported by the progressive Left -- it's the camel's nose under the tent toward taxing all capital gains at ordinary rates. Republicans and conservatives should not give aid and comfort to this long term strategy.
ATR has detailed the case against carried interest tax hikes with op-eds in USA Today and Forbes.
Tax rates: Individual tax brackets of 0, 10, 20, and 25 percent (the top rate today is 39.6 percent). The "zero bracket" would apply to married couples' first $50,000 of income (half that for singles).
Capital gains and dividends: By repealing Obamacare's savings surtax, the capital gains and dividends rate is reduced from 23.8 percent today to 20 percent under the Trump plan.
It's also important to note that with a top ordinary income tax rate of 25 percent, the carried interest tax rate hike on "hedge fund guys" is fairly modest, rising from 23.8 percent today to 25 percent under the Trump plan. ATR opposes this tax increase.
Business tax rate: The tax rate on corporate and non-corporate businesses is 15 percent, down from 35 percent today for corporations and 39.6 percent for pass-through firms.
Death Tax: Repealed.
Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT): Repealed.
Marriage Penalty: Repealed.
The plan is intended to be revenue-neutral under a dynamic analysis. In order to make up the remaining lost revenue, the plan features the following major base broadeners:
Deduction phase out: All itemized deductions except for charitable contributions and mortgage interest will be subject to a steeper means-test phaseout than they face under current law.
Deemed repatriation and an end to deferral: An immediate "deemed repatriation" tax of 10 percent is assessed on the $2.5 trillion of U.S. company profits sitting overseas. Going forward, companies would no longer be able to defer U.S. double tax on profits earned overseas.
According to the OECD, the U.S. business tax rate would fall from highest in the developed world to one of the lowest. When state rates are factored in, the U.S. would face the same tax rate as the United Kingdom, and lower tax rates than trading competitors China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Germany, and France. We would be far below the developed nation average business marginal tax rate of 25 percent.
The loss of deferral is troubling, but two elements should be kept in mind. First, the new 15 percent tax rate is far lower than the double tax companies face today. Second, businesses will be able to credit against this 15 percent U.S. tax any foreign income tax they have already paid overseas. With one of the lowest tax rates in the developed world, it's very unlikely much if any double taxation will, in fact, occur.
Life insurance tax shelter repealed: Life insurance will no longer be tax-advantaged for high-income taxpayers
Business interest: This deduction will face a phased in cap.
Other deductions and credits: Tax breaks for high-income taxpayers and large firms will also be eliminated, but these are not specified.
No movement to full business expensing: The most disappointing part of the Trump plan is that the tax system would move no closer to full expensing of business fixed investment. Businesses would still be saddled with the complex, distorting, and growth-inhibiting "depreciation" regime where an asset is deducted over several or even many years. Far better would be to move to a full-expensing business cash flow model, where all business inputs including investments are deducted in the year spent. While this is somewhat ameliorated by the far lower tax rates, a lack of progress here is the plan's biggest drawback.
To hear more analysis of Donald Trump's tax plan, listen to the latest podcast of The Grover Norquist Show here.
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Anti-Vape Activists Cause First Increase In Cigarette Sales In 20 Years

Newly released data from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has shown that annual cigarette sales in 2020 increased for the first time in two decades, despite numerous tax increase in multiple states on the product. The increase in cigarette sales follows a concerted effort by well funded anti-vaping activists to distort the science and data regarding vaping to pass laws restricting consumer access, causing a significant drop in the number of smokers quitting, as well as leading smokers who had previously made the switch returning to combustible tobacco.
Vaping, a proven harm reduction technology which is 95% safer than deadly combustible tobacco, is endorsed by over 60 of the world’s leading medical bodies, and according to studies conducted by Georgetown University Medical Center has the potential to save 6.6 million American lives in the next 10 years. Despite the science, activists, primarily funded by Michael Bloomberg to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, throughout 2020 lobbied lawmakers to restrict access to this vital quit-smoking aid, leading to multiple states and local governments banning the majority of vaping products. These bans, such as those instituted in San Francisco, have already been shown by Yale University to increase youth smoking rates and this latest data demonstrates that these restrictions have contributed to smoking increasing across the board.
In addition, misinformation regarding “EVALI”, a 2019 outbreak of lung illnesses caused by illicit, black market THC products laced with Vitamin E acetate which has nothing to do with nicotine vaping products, has also been shown to have increased the smoking rate. According to previously published research conducted by Boston University, anti-vaping activists “messaging that questioned the safety of nicotine-containing e-cigarettes” and falsely attributed EVALI to nicotine vaping “led to an increase in combustible cigarette use”
This trend of increased smoking is set to continue if Congressional Democrats get their way, and impose staggering new Federal Taxes on e-cigarettes. Academic modelling has shown that Democrat proposals, which would see e-cigarettes taxed even higher than combustible tobacco, would lead to 2.75 million additional smokers in the United States.
The increase in smoking rates has proven the devastating public health consequences of the Bloomberg-driven anti-vaping campaign in the United States. It’s time that lawmakers accept the science, and follow other governments such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and New Zealand, who are actively promoting smokers making the switch to vaping. Millions of lives quite literally depend on it.
Photo Credit: Centophobia
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Republicans are not Responsible for Rushing Through Biden’s Delayed FCC Nominations

It’s about 280 days into Biden’s Presidency and he has finally decided to designate Federal Communications Commission Acting Chair, Jessica Rosenworcel as permanent Chair.
Along with Rosenworcel’s Chair nomination, comes the nomination of Gigi Sohn, a long-time democratic advocate, not just for Title II net neutrality and a host of other socialist plans, but was also never shy about using Title II net neutrality as a method for federal broadband rate regulation.
Biden’s delayed nomination of Jessica Rosenworcel to FCC Chair that is a mere two months before her required departure from the FCC, does not create an artificially expedited timeline for Sohn’s confirmation. Nor should Republicans feel pressure to carry water for Biden and Senate Democrats slow process.
Even with the overall lag in nominations, the FCC was expected to be a key player in the administration’s assault on American free markets as outlined in Biden’s July 9 executive order on competition (which calls on the FCC to reimpose net neutrality) and shored up by the nomination of Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, who was initially nominated as Commissioner and only elevated to Chair after she was confirmed by the Senate.
It would seem that the Administration is not back-dooring its more progressive nomination, Sohn, to the FCC by first elevating Rosenworcel to the Chair position. However, Republicans should not take this as a comfort.
Though Rosenworcel, a long-time telecommunications professional on both the Hill and at the FCC, is seen as relatively moderate in the current environment, she would require Sohn’s vote to get through anything on her markedly progressive agenda, and a guarantee that items that could have passed in a bipartisan fashion will instead become part of a radical left-wing agenda.
Republicans are under no circumstances are responsible for both of these nominations to go through before the end of the year. Senate democrats will likely want to confirm Rosenworcel quickly because she is serving in a "holdover" period after her term expired last year. If she is not confirmed by the end of this year, she will have to leave the FCC until confirmation, something she experienced in 2016-17 as well.
Due to the limited number of legislative days in the calendar, odds are against final Senate confirmation this year. That is a problem of Biden’s own making; not that of Senate Republicans.
Sohn’s nomination in particular should not be on an artificial rush. She is seen as a controversial figure and could require the Vice President's tie-breaking vote in the Senate. While serving as Senior Advisor to former FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, she shepherded the Title II version of net neutrality that imposed burdensome regulations and cause broadband investment to decrease for the first time outside of a recession, supported price regulation on broadband, lead the FCC’s unlawful attempt to preempt state laws restricting municipal broadband, and pushed for asymmetric privacy rules on Internet service providers and tech companies that were later revoked with the Congressional Review Act.
The Biden Administration is looking to create an artificial time crunch to push through exceeding controversial nominations at the FCC. If Rosenworcel’s nomination had occurred by springtime, which appears to be customary looking at the history of nominations and confirmations from presidents Reagan through Trump (see list below), the FCC would not be on the brink of falling into de facto Republican control. Sohn’s confirmation should not be linked to Rosenworcel’s end of year deadline to leave the FCC.
Without Rosenworcel’s confirmation, democratic Commissioner Geoffrey Starks would set the agenda, but he would be up against a republican majority, likely leading to a continuation of the bipartisanship we are seeing at the FCC right now.
With Rosenworcel’s unexpectedly quick confirmation, the FCC could continue its bipartisan business as it has thus far. In fact, under Republican FCC Chairman Pai the majority of votes were bipartisan as well.
With Sohn’s confirmation alongside Rosenworcel’s, we will see the FCC devolve into partisan politics and continuations of policy’s that have already been shown not to work, Title II net neutrality being chief among those.
FCC Chair Days until Confirmation after Nomination, Reagan through Trump
Photo credits: "FCC Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel" by the Internet Education Foundation and "Gigi Sohn" by Joel Sage both licensed under CC BY 2.0
Michigan Supports Parents, But Does Gretchen Whitmer?

Earlier this week, lawmakers in Michigan passed legislation to give low-income families flexibility over their children's schooling. Now Gretchen Whitmer will have to decide who she values more, students or the teachers unions.
This began with the recent introduction of four bills to the Michigan Legislature and voted on today, SB 687, SB 688, HB 5404, and HB 5405. These bills allow students across the state to access Opportunity Scholarships. Michigan would have given taxpayer dollars back to low-income parents to pay tuition for non-public opportunities. These options would provide families with more flexibility in their children's education, letting them choose the place they think gives the best education.
Opportunity scholarships are a type of Educational Savings Account, a form of school choice that eight states have already enacted. According to EdChoice, "Education savings accounts (ESAs) allow parents to withdraw their children from public district or charter schools and receive a deposit of public funds into government-authorized savings accounts with restricted, but multiple uses."
One of the most recent states to pass ESAs was West Virginia. Their New Hope Scholarship program, which launches in 2022, provides students up to $4,600 to use in various approved services, including ones from out-of-state providers. Other states have experimented with ESAs, but "these scholarship programs have generally been limited by geographical area or to particular populations of students or families (such as children with disabilities or those from a military background)."
Michigan's is available to students across the state, giving parents more power in their children's education. "Because of government policies, many parents can only afford to send their children to government schools, thus limiting those parents' ability to direct their children's education," said Michelle Lupanoff , a Michigan parent with two High School-aged children, "The ability to use the funds in our education accounts will reduce our financial burden to pay for private school."
"Being able to use funds from our education account would help provide more financial security for our family and our children's future," said Jill Hill, mother of a first grader in Kalamazoo. "From this current situation, we know the future is unpredictable, so if we can use that savings now it would provide even more security down the road."
The head of education policy at the Mackinac Center, Ben Degrow also supports the new bills, saying, "The Student Opportunity Scholarship plan deserves full support. Enacting the program would offer more than a million Michigan students the sort of broad access to education options that's already available in many other states."
For too long, the government has limited school choice to only those with the money to escape the public school system. Those without funds were stuck with their district, regardless of quality. Giving low-income parents the power to choose is a great way to orient schooling toward the needs of the children, not the unions.
Unfortunately, not everyone sees it that way. A spokesperson for Governor Gretchen Whitmer said the "legislation is a non-starter,” claiming that “these bills are voucher schemes that have been shamelessly introduced during a pandemic, that would send Michigan taxpayer dollars mainly to private and religious schools.”
The bills were passed on Thursday, October 20, and will soon arrive at the desk of Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who can either choose to sign them or to veto them. The teachers' unions are one of Whitmer's biggest donors, and "this year alone, Whitmer has vetoed two proposals to fund students rather than systems with federal COVID-19 relief money,” according to the Hill.
Michigan's push for school choice is the most recent step in a movement gaining momentum across the country as more parents recognize that the public school system isn't serving their students’ needs. Letting parents choose where their children can go to school is a no-brainer to give the power to people, not the government.
When the bills reach her desk, Gretchen Whitmer will have to make a choice between the needs of students and the needs of her donors.
Photo Credit: "Family Walking” by Nick Amoscato is licensed under CC BY 2.0.
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10 Problems with Taxing Unrealized Gains

Democrats are pushing a tax on unrealized gains. This “mark to market” regime, or wealth tax would force Americans to pay taxes every year on the paper gain in the value of assets (i.e. stocks, collectibles, real estate).
Currently, taxpayers only pay the capital gains tax when an asset is sold. This makes sense because the asset is illiquid until it is disposed of. This tax on unrealized gains would create a new tax system that requires taxpayers to pay tax on the value of an asset based on the value of these assets on a particular arbitrary date.
Here are 10 reasons to be concerned with a tax on unrealized gains:
1. The Tax would Empower The IRS
In order to enforce this tax, the IRS would have to be given vast new powers to value the assets of taxpayers. This would be an extremely invasive and difficult task. As noted by Howard Gleckman of the Tax Policy Center, taxing unrealized gains is not practical and would be extremely complex:
“The concept is theoretically appealing but raises many practical problems. While in principle it could work for publicly traded securities and other investments with easily determined market values, many assets don’t fit that bill.”
With the IRS’s history of discrimination and malpractice, it should be concerning to have agents collect this information. There would be significant compliance and administrative issues with this tax. For instance, the IRS would have to monitor assets of taxpayers to determine if they hit the thresholds and are encompassed by the tax. Many assets cannot easily be valued so both the taxpayer and the federal government would be required to hire armies of accountants and lawyers to determine valuations.
2. The Tax Would Likely Grow to Hit Millions of Americans Over Time
According to media reports, the tax would apply to taxpayers with over $1 billion in assets or a taxpayer that earned $100 million in income for three years. This would impact 700 taxpayers according to reports. However, it is likely the tax will grow in size in future years to hit thousands or even millions of taxpayers.
When the federal income tax was first imposed in 1913, it imposed a 1 percent tax on incomes above $3,000 (4,000 for married couples). The top rate was 7 percent on incomes of $500,000. In Today’s dollars the 1 percent tax would be imposed on incomes above $83,124 for an individual and $110,832 for a married couple, while the top 7 percent rate would be imposed on $13.8 million in income.
Today, the bottom income tax bracket is 12 percent and applies to income of $9,950 for a single filer and $19,900 for joint returns, with a $12,550 standard deduction ($25,100 for joint returns). The top rate is 37 percent on incomes above $523,600 ($628,300 for joint returns).
Similarly, Congress enacted the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) in 1969 following the discovery that 155 people with adjusted gross income above $200,000 had paid zero federal income tax. Over time, The AMT grew so large that millions of Americans paid the tax and millions more saw increased tax complexity. By 2010, the AMT grew so large that Congress had to step in and prevent it from hitting nearly 30 million Americans (20 percent of filers).
3. The Tax Will Encourage Taxpayers to Move Overseas or Move States
Taxpayers impacted by the tax on unrealized gains will be incentivized to move overseas in order to avoid the tax. In response to this concern, several proposals have created an “exit tax” on taxpayers that want to leave the country. The Washington Post editorial board said this arrangement "conveys a certain authoritarian odor," as it binds people to the United States with severe financial consequences for deciding to leave.
In addition to encouraging taxpayers to leave the country, it would result In taxpayers leaving states with high capital gains taxes, like California to states with no capital gains tax. Blue states would like to ensure their state capital gains tax would apply to unrealized gains so taxpayers would be hit twice In many states.
4. The Tax Will Harm Jobs and the Economy
This tax would lead to a reduction in new investment in the economy, which would harm working families and small businesses and lead to a reduction in jobs and wages. An American Action Forum (AAF) study, on Senator Elizabeth Warren's (D-Mass.) $3 trillion wealth tax proposal found that the tax would decrease innovation and investment, driving down wages and causing unemployment.
It would shrink GDP by $1.1 trillion over the first ten years, and then continue to shrink it each year by $283 billion, or 1 percent of GDP.
This tax would result in a loss of $785 billion in labor income. Over the long run, wage losses would amount to $241 billion annually. As described in AAF’s study, “In short, over the long run Warren’s wealth tax is more damaging to workers than anyone else.”
The tax on unrealized gains being considered by Democrats would undoubtedly have similar negative Impacts on workers and the economy.
5. The Tax Code is Already Steeply Progressive
While Democrats routinely assert that the “rich” need to pay their “fair share,” the tax code is already steeply progressive.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the top one percent of earners paid 41.7 percent of income taxes in 2018 and 25.9 percent of federal taxes. The top 20 percent of earners paid 90.9 percent of income taxes and 69.8 percent of all federal taxes.
While the “rich” pay over 40 percent of income taxes, they earn just 21 percent of all income, according to the Heritage Foundation. The bottom 50 percent pay just 3 percent of income taxes, while the bottom 75 percent pay just 13 percent of income taxes.
In addition, the Joint Committee on Taxation found that taxpayers with incomes of $1 million or more pay an average federal tax rate of 31.5 percent, while the bottom half of income earners ($63,179 or less) pay an average rate of just 6.3 percent.
6. The Tax would Likely be Unconstitutional
Article I, Section 9 of the U.S. Constitution bars the federal government from imposing direct taxes unless they are apportioned. To get around a decision made by the Supreme Court in Pollock v. Farmers’ Loan & Trust Co. (1895), which ruled the income tax unconstitutional under Section 9, the Sixteenth Amendment was adopted. This amendment authorized an unapportioned tax on income “derived from a source.” Commissioner v. Glenshaw Glass (1955) described the “derived” requirement as income that constitutes “an accession to wealth, clearly realized, over which the taxpayer has complete dominion.”
In the context of mark-to-market taxation, “unrealized” gains certainly do not meet the “clearly realized” condition. This form of taxation is also, indisputably, not apportioned. Further, the Supreme Court explicitly said that unrealized gains do not qualify as “income” under the 16th Amendment. The Supreme Court ruled in Eisner v. Macomber that realization is a requirement for a tax to be considered income under the 16th Amendment:
“… we are brought irresistibly to the conclusion that neither under the Sixteenth Amendment nor otherwise has Congress power to tax without apportionment a true stock dividend made lawfully and in good faith, or the accumulated profits behind it, as income of the stockholder.”
If mark-to-market taxation of capital gains is a direct tax, is not covered by the 16th Amendment, and is not apportioned, then it is unconstitutional.
7. Americans Oppose Taxing Unrealized Gains
Americans oppose taxing unrealized gains by a ratio of 3-1, according to a survey experiment with 5,000 respondents published in May 2021. The paper, The Psychology of Taxing Capital Income: Evidence from a Survey Experiment on the Realization Rule, is authored by Professor Zachary D. Liscow of Yale University Law School and Edward G. Fox of the University of Michigan Law School.
Specifically, 75 percent of respondents opposed taxing unrealized gains, with all demographic groups opposing the measure:
"Respondents strongly prefer to wait to tax gains on publicly-traded stocks until sale versus taxing unsold gains each year: 75% to 25%. Though this opposition is strongest among those who are wealthier or own stocks, all demographic groups oppose taxing unsold gains by large margins. This opposition persists and is often strengthened when looking across a variety of other assets and policy framings."
Survey-takers’ massive rejection of abandoning the realization rule held up even after they heard arguments in favor of this kind of taxation, when they themselves don’t own stock, and even if they’re Democrats. Respondents did not consider the gains "real" until the stock has yielded cash in the taxpayer's hand. Simply put, taxing unrealized gains cuts deeply against Americans’ sense of fairness and common sense.
8. The Tax has Failed and Been Repealed in Foreign Countries
Foreign countries have tried taxing wealth before, and it has failed. In 1995, 15 countries implemented a wealth tax. Since then, 11 have been repealed. The countries that have repealed their wealth taxes are Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Luxembourg, Ireland, and Italy.
In addition to cost of enforcement, which Austria cited specifically, and the difficulty of valuing assets, these countries also found that the tax was ineffective at combating wealth insecurity and did not redistribute wealth in favor of low-to-middle income earners.
9. The Tax Will Force Taxpayers to Liquidate their Assets and Could Create Market Volatility
The tax would force taxpayers to liquidate their assets because many will have their wealth tied up in a business. For publicly traded companies, taxpayers will have to sell stock which could affect the value of the company, reduce the value of retirement portfolios and harm investors.
It could also result in taxpayers losing control of parts of their business if the company is privately held or lead to a company being broken up.
There is also the problem of how this tax would treat losses. It could require the federal government to refund taxpayers if they have a loss in a given year. At the very least, it could zero out the tax liability for wealthy taxpayers in a certain year.
10. It Would Impose Taxes Retroactively
A tax on unrealized gains would punish taxpayers for past decision making by taxing paper gains from the original date that asset was acquired. It would impose significant tax liability when first implemented as taxpayers would be required to pay taxes on assets they first acquired years or decades ago. Even if this payment was spread out over several years, it would be a significant tax liability.
The tax code must be applied with consistency, certainty, and fairness. Taxpayers routinely make decisions based on a reasonable interpretation of the law with the expectation that future changes to the law will not be applied looking backwards.
Retroactively changing the tax code and requiring taxpayers to pay taxes on assets they acquired years or decades ago undermines these principles by changing the rules after the fact.
This also undermines confidence in the tax system and discourage taxpayers from taking advantage of explicit tax incentives (e.g., for charitable contributions, business investments, and energy efficiency) if they fear Congress might retroactively eliminate these incentives in the future.
Photo Credit: "That was supposed to be going up, wasn't it?" by Rafael Matsunaga is licensed under CC BY 2.0.
Tax Policy Center: Tax on Unrealized Gains "Ripe for Abuse" and "Won't Work"

Not only do Americans overwhelmingly oppose the concept of taxing unrealized gains, the nation's top progressive tax policy group says the idea pushed by Dem Senator Ron Wyden "won't work."
The Tax Policy Center says that the plan "raises many practical problems" and "won't work" and is "ripe for abuse."
On Nov. 21, 2019 Tax Policy Center senior fellow Howard Gleckman wrote:
“Last Friday, The Tax Policy Center sponsored a morning-long program on market-to-market taxation of capital gains. After three hours, I came away convinced that annually taxing unrealized investment profits during an investor’s lifetime is not practical… The concept is theoretically appealing but raises many practical problems. While in principle it could work for publicly traded securities and other investments with easily determined market values, many assets don’t fit that bill.”
That same day, Gleckman wrote on Twitter:
A mark-to-market #capitalgains #tax won't work.
On Oct. 21, 2021 Gleckman wrote on Twitter:
Skeptical on the politics and administrability of mark-to-market.
On Sept. 27, 2021 Tax Policy Center senior fellow Steve Rosenthal wrote on Twitter:
"Mark-to-market securities of billionaires? Sounds attractive, but it's hard. Are gains on their securities ordinary or capital? Does it matter whether the securities are sold before year-end or marked at year-end? Are losses ordinary or capital?”
On Oct. 22, 2021 Rosenthal wrote on Twitter:
A mark-to-market loss is a deemed, not actual, sale. No transaction costs. And the taxpayer makes up the valuation. Ripe for abuse.
The proposal to tax unrealized gains is deeply unpopular with the American public. According to a survey experiment conducted in May of 2021, Americans strongly oppose taxing unsold gains across all demographics.
In their paper, The Psychology of Taxing Capital Income: Evidence from a Survey Experiment on the Realization Rule, the researchers found:
"Respondents strongly prefer to wait to tax gains on publicly-traded stocks until sale versus taxing unsold gains each year: 75% to 25%. Though this opposition is strongest among those who are wealthier or own stocks, all demographic groups oppose taxing unsold gains by large margins. This opposition persists and is often strengthened when looking across a variety of other assets and policy framings."
The study also found that 69% of Democrats oppose taxing unrealized gains.
Progressive tax groups and the American people strongly agree, taxing unrealized capital gains is unfair and impractical.
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0
ATR Op-Ed in The Hill: The CFPB's data overreach hurts the businesses it claims to help

In an op-ed published in The Hill last week, ATR Federal Affairs Manager Bryan Bashur wrote about a rulemaking issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which would significantly increase data collection and reporting requirements for financial institutions.
Section 1071 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act required the CFPB to issue a rulemaking that would compel financial institutions to collect personal data from small businesses that submit loan applications and report it to the federal government.
If finalized in its current form, the CFPB’s rule would mandate the collection of a laundry list of personal information from small businesses. As Bashur highlights:
The CFPB wants to make business decisions for banks, credit unions and financial technology companies. Section 1071 directs financial institutions to collect data on small businesses that apply for a loan. Specifically, the financial institutions must disclose data to the CFPB, such as the sex, race and ethnicity of the loan applicant, the amount of the credit transaction, the gross annual revenue of the business and the census tract in which the business is located.
Ostensibly, this information would be used to target lending discrimination toward minority-owned and women-owned small businesses. While this is an admirable goal, the proposal falls short. As Bashur points out:
The CFPB will likely use the data it collects as a precursor to issuing future regulations that will force financial institutions to only lend to certain small businesses without considering risk factors. If financial institutions are unable to take risks into account when deciding whether to extend credit, they will likely decide to withhold all credit.
The CFPB’s rule will not enable increased credit access to minority-owned and women-owned small businesses. Instead, capital will dry up and no credit will make its way to traditionally under-capitalized businesses. In 2017, the Treasury Department published a report on financial regulation in the United States and recommended repealing section 1071 outright.
The rule will exacerbate the issue that it is trying to solve.
The federal government should promote deregulation to help unleash capital for small businesses. Unfortunately, this CFPB proposal will only increase government intervention into private business activities between lenders and borrowers. As Bashur explains:
Ensuring all small businesses have access to capital is vital for the sustainment of a strong American economy. However, it is wrong to assume that the federal government will know what financing decisions should be made between a private lender and a private borrower. The CFPB should let financial institutions do their job and continue to make risk-based financing decisions. This both allows capital to flow to businesses with successful businesses models and ensures that credit can continue to flow.
COVID-19 has been detrimental for small businesses. The last thing small businesses need is for the CFPB to intervene in private contracts that are distortive and may end up promoting discrimination instead of ending it.
Click here to read the full op-ed.
Photo Credit: "Exterior of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Washington, DC USA" by Ted Eytan is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0
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Tennessee Companies Will Face Higher Taxes Than China and Europe if Dem Bill Passes
Tennessee companies will get stuck with higher taxes than communist China if the Democrats' reconciliation bill is enacted.
The Democrats' reconciliation bill will saddle Tennessee with a combined federal-state corporate tax rate of 31.3% vs. communist China's 25%.
The bill will also put Tennessee companies at a competitive disadvantage vs. Europe: The European average corporate tax rate is 19%.
Tennessee is home to 10 Fortune 500 companies.
"As the country tries to recover from a once-in-a-century pandemic, Tennessee's congressional Democrats must explain why they want to stick residents with higher taxes than China and Europe," said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.
The Democrats' $3.5 trillion bill will impose the largest tax increase since 1968. It will raise individual income taxes, small business taxes, corporate taxes, and capital gains taxes. If passed, the U.S. capital gains tax rate would be 31.8% vs. China's 20%.
The burden of the corporate tax rate hike will be borne by workers in the form of lower wages, and by households in the form of higher prices. Higher corporate tax rates will also raise utility bills.
The non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation recently affirmed in congressional testimony that the corporate tax rate hike will fall on "labor, laborers."
Testifying before the House Ways & Means Committee, JCT Chief of Staff Thomas A. Barthold said:
"Literature suggests that 25% of the burden of the corporate tax may be borne by labor in terms of diminished wage growth."
Economists across the political spectrum agree that workers bear the brunt of corporate tax increases. And 25% is on the very low end.
According to the Stephen Entin of the Tax Foundation, labor (or workers) bear an estimated 70 percent of the corporate income tax. He wrote in 2017:
"Over the last few decades, economists have used empirical studies to estimate the degree to which the corporate tax falls on labor and capital, in part by noting an inverse correlation between corporate taxes and wages and employment. These studies appear to show that labor bears between 50 percent and 100 percent of the burden of the corporate income tax, with 70 percent or higher the most likely outcome."
A 2012 paper at the University of Warwick and University of Oxford found that a $1 increase in the corporate tax reduces wages by 92 cents in the long term. This study was conducted by Wiji Arulampalam, Michael P. Devereux, and Giorgia Maffini and studied over 55,000 businesses located in nine European countries over the period 1996-2003:
"We identify this direct shifting through cross-company variation in tax liabilities, conditional on value added per employee. Our central estimate is that $1 of additional tax reduces wages by 92 cents in the long run. The incidence of a $1 fall in value added is smaller, consistent with our wage bargaining model."
A 2015 study by Kevin Hassett and Aparna Mathur found that a 1 percent increase in corporate tax rates leads to a 0.5 percent decrease in wage rates. The study analyses 66 countries over 25 years and concludes that workers could see a greater reduction in wages than the federal government raises in new revenue from a corporate income tax increase:
"We find, controlling for other macroeconomic variables, that wages are significantly responsive to corporate taxation. Higher corporate tax rates depress wages. Using spatial modelling techniques, we also find that tax characteristics of neighbouring countries, whether geographic or economic, have a significant effect on domestic wages."
A 2006 study by William Randolph of the Congressional Budget Office found that 74% of the corporate tax is borne by domestic labor:
"Burdens are measured in a numerical example by substituting factor shares and output shares that are reasonable for the U.S. economy. Given those values, domestic labor bears slightly more than 70 percent of the burden of the corporate income tax."
A 2007 study by Alison Felix estimated that a 1 percentage point increase in the marginal corporate tax rate decreases annual wages by 0.7 percent. She concluded that the wage reductions are over four times the amount of collected corporate tax revenue:
"The empirical results presented here suggest that the incidence of corporate taxation is more than fully borne by labor. I estimate that a one percentage point increase in the marginal corporate tax rate decreases annual wages by 0.7 percent. The magnitude of the results predicts that the decrease in wages is more than four times the amount of the corporate tax revenue collected."
A 2012 Harvard Business Review piece by Mihir A. Desai notes that raising the corporate tax lands “straight on the back” of the American worker and will see a decline in real wages:
"Because capital is mobile, high tax rates divert investment away from the U.S. corporate sector and toward housing, noncorporate business sectors, and foreign countries. American workers need that capital to become more productive. When it’s invested elsewhere, real wages decline, and if product prices are set globally, there is no place for the corporate tax to land but straight on the back of the least-mobile factor in this setting: the American worker."
Even the left-of-center Tax Policy Center estimates that 20 percent of the burden of the corporate income tax is borne by labor:
"In calculating distributional effects, the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center (TPC) assumes investment returns (dividends, interest, capital gains, etc.) bear 80 percent of the burden, with wages and other labor income carrying the remaining 20 percent."
"Democrats would be wise to oppose any tax increase," said Norquist.
Lawmakers Should Support the Prohibiting IRS Financial Surveillance Act

Last week, Senator Tim Scott (R-S.C.), with Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member Pat Toomey (R-Penn.), introduced the “Prohibiting IRS Financial Surveillance Act,” which would bar the IRS from implementing Democrats’ proposed reporting regime on the bank, loan, and investment accounts used by virtually every American. There is also a House companion bill introduced by Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.).
Democrats’ reporting regime would force financial institutions to collect any personal or business account in which the total withdrawals and deposits exceed at least $10,000 throughout the year. The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates that taxpayers in every single income bracket would be impacted by this reporting requirement. This is a radical violation of privacy, will subject virtually every American to IRS abuse, and is not consistent with Democrats’ goals of making the “rich pay their fair share.”
Sen. Scott’s bill explicitly prohibits the disclosure of any account’s outflows and inflows:
“The Secretary of the Treasury (including any delegate of the Secretary) may not require any financial institution to report –
(1) the inflows or outflows of any account maintained by such institution, or
(2) any balances, transactions, transfers, or similar information with respect to any such account…”
The proposed reporting regime is a radical violation of privacy. This policy would give the federal government access to virtually every American’s account inflows and outflows. The proposal is not tailored nor targeted at all towards higher-income taxpayers or more “suspicious” behavior. Steven Rosenthal with the left-leaning Tax Policy Center explained that this reporting regime proposal would "bury the agency in a sea of unproductive information.” In fact, if a family's monthly expenses total just $833 a month, or about $200 a week, their bank information would be reported to the IRS.
Additionally, the IRS already abuses current reporting laws. The IRS Criminal Investigation Division (IRS-CI) regularly violated taxpayers’ rights and skirted or ignored due process requirements when investigating taxpayers for allegedly violating the existing $10,000 currency transaction reporting requirements, according to a 2017 report by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA).
The report found numerous abuses – IRS agents often failed to properly identify themselves, seized financial assets before ever having talked or consulted with investigated taxpayers, didn’t attempt to verify reasonable explanations investigated taxpayers offered, and did not inform taxpayers of important information nor the purpose of interviews. The outcome of these cases was often determined by how willing a taxpayer was to engage in litigation against the government, rather than how severe the alleged offense was, a clear violation of the Eighth Amendment. To make matters worse, the vast majority of taxpayers targeted were innocent.
Finally, one must wonder: “Why would Democrats be pushing for this policy if their stated goal is to make millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share?” Evidently, even Democrats know that the IRS will need tools to use against the middle class in order to raise the amount of money they claim the IRS will raise through increased funding.
Cosponsors of the "Prohibiting IRS Financial Surveillance Act" include Senators Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), John Thune (R-S.D.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), John Kennedy (R-La.), Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Todd Young (R-Ind.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Jim Risch (R-Idaho), Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), James Lankford (R-Okla.), Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), and Rob Portman (R-Ohio).
The IRS has a long record of targeting and harassing taxpayers. This proposed new financial reporting regime is a violation of privacy, would provide another way for the agency to target taxpayers, and would disproportionately harm low- and middle-income Americans. To protect taxpayers, all lawmakers should support the “Prohibiting IRS Financial Surveillance Act.”
Photo Credit: "Tim Scott" by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
More from Americans for Tax Reform
Americans Oppose Taxing Unrealized Gains by an Overwhelming 3-to-1 Margin

Democrats are gearing up to impose a tax on unrealized capital gains. This "mark to market" regime would force Americans to pay taxes every year on the paper gain in value of assets -- stocks, collectibles, tchotchkes, etc. But Americans oppose taxing unrealized gains, by a ratio of 3-1.
Across all demographic groups, Americans strongly oppose taxing unrealized gains, according to a survey experiment with 5,000 respondents published in May 2021.
The paper, The Psychology of Taxing Capital Income: Evidence from a Survey Experiment on the Realization Rule, is authored by Professor Zachary D. Liscow of Yale University Law School and Edward G. Fox of the University of Michigan Law School.
The researchers found:
"Respondents strongly prefer to wait to tax gains on publicly-traded stocks until sale versus taxing unsold gains each year: 75% to 25%. Though this opposition is strongest among those who are wealthier or own stocks, all demographic groups oppose taxing unsold gains by large margins. This opposition persists and is often strengthened when looking across a variety of other assets and policy framings."
The realization rule requires that property must be sold before gains are taxed. By a margin of 75 to 25, people preferred this rule.
The study also noted popular revolts against the property tax as evidence of the aversion to taxing unsold gains.
They asked participants about how a property tax should handle appreciated assets, noting that:
“In this context, respondents are again hesitant to fully tax gains on assets that have not been sold.”
Survey-takers’ massive rejection of abandoning the realization rule held up even after they heard arguments in favor of this kind of taxation, when they themselves don’t own stock, and even if they’re Democrats.
A primary reason for this is because people use “mental accounting” heuristics, under which they react differently to unsold gains than other ways of getting richer, like wages:
"... These behaviors are often thought to result from people using heuristics that put stocks in different “mental accounts” than money in the bank or wages. Using these heuristics, most people treat stock investments as an “open” mental account until sale and do not fully internalize paper gains or losses."
After all, taxes paid on these assets would have to come from other sources of income, not the asset itself.
The study explains this sentiment further:
"There is significant concern that unsold gains are not yet real in a sense. As shown in Table 4, the word most distinctively associated with opponents is “actual”—as in, taxpayers have not “actually” received income “yet.” Likewise, they note that the stock has not yet yielded “cash,” or anything in the taxpayer’s “hand.”"
Abandoning the realization rule is so unpopular that, even when told that this hypothetical tax would only impact those with over $10 million in wealth, the preference for taxing unsold stock gains only moderately increased by 9 percentage points to 34 percent.
Many on the left including the progressive group ProPublica are suggesting that unrealized gains should be taxed annually.
Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) has long tried to impose a tax on unrealized gains, an initiative he calls, “Treat Wealth like Wages.”
But as shown by the study, taxing unrealized gains cuts deeply against Americans’ sense of fairness and common sense.
Photo Credit: Stock Catalog
More from Americans for Tax Reform
Partisan FTC and DOJ Misconstrue Debit Card Landscape

Partisanship and left-wing extremism epitomize the Biden administration. This has made it exceedingly difficult for the administration to finalize a deal with moderate Democrats on the multi trillion-dollar tax-and-spend package. What is important to note though is that this partisanship extends beyond the doors of the White House and is present at every agency throughout the federal government.
In particular, the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) are led by liberals Merrick Garland and Lina Khan, respectively. Recently DOJ and FTC filed letters in support of the Federal Reserve’s notice of proposed rulemaking, which would amend provisions of Regulation II so that certain debit card routing restrictions would apply to transactions that occur online (i.e. card-not-present transactions).
The fact that these agencies publicly support the Federal Reserve’s rulemaking to further bolster the routing restrictions from the Durbin amendment, which is widely lauded by Democrats, is par for the course.
If officials at DOJ and FTC were nominated by a conservative Republican administration, it is unlikely they would support policy that is clearly an expansion of a federal government mandate.
Moreover, the language on routing restrictions in the Durbin amendment has been misconstrued by the Federal Reserve. The language in statute requires the Federal Reserve to issue rules that prohibit restricting “the number of payment card networks on which an electronic debit transaction may be processed.” However, statute does not authorize the Federal Reserve to write rules “to impose an affirmative obligation” on banks and credit unions to make sure that each merchant and transaction is provided with at least two unaffiliated payment networks. Clearly, the Federal Reserve is overstepping its statutory authority in its proposed rulemaking.
The DOJ and FTC’s claims that banks, credit unions, and payment card networks are actively conducting anticompetitive behavior to the detriment of merchants is false. In many cases merchants are the ones limiting routing options. Banks and credit unions cannot help it if merchants refuse to use updated and more secure technology to access payment networks.
In 2011, the Federal Reserve admitted that banks and credit unions could not be at fault if a merchant decided to not install new card processing technology, such as card reader terminals. The Federal Reserve stated that, “To the extent a merchant has chosen not to accept PIN debit, the merchant, and not the issuer or the payment card network, has restricted the available choices for routing an electronic debit transaction.”
This issue continues today. Merchants have limited payment options for consumers to cut corners while the technology for alternative payment methods for card-not-present transactions has existed for years.
Merchants “have been making a conscious decision not to adopt technologies” that would broaden payment transaction choices for card-not-present transactions.
Biden’s DOJ and FTC have it all wrong. It is not the banks, credit unions, or payment card networks that reduce competition, it is the large multi-billion-dollar merchants that prefer to cut corners than prioritize secure and efficient debit transactions.
Photo Credit: "Woman holding credit card closeup" by Nenad Stojkovic is licensed under CC BY 2.0






























