Tax Foundation: Hillary Tax Hikes to Cost More Than 300,000 Jobs

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Posted by Alexander Hendrie on Wednesday, January 27th, 2016, 4:41 PM PERMALINK


Hillary Clinton’s tax proposals will lead to lower wages, less jobs, and will reduce GDP, according to a recently released analysis by the Tax Foundation. In addition, her plan to date will likely fall hundreds of billions short of raising the revenue she hopes. The study was authored by Kyle Pomerleau and Michael Schuyler.

According to the analysis, Clinton’s proposals will increase federal revenue by $191 billion over the next decade, far below the more than $1 trillion her campaign claims. The lower than advertised revenue is due to the drastically reduced economic output that her tax hikes will cause.

Most notably, Clinton’s proposal to raise capital gains taxes will decrease revenue by as much as $409 billion, when dynamically scored.

In addition, the Tax Foundation estimates Clinton’s proposals will reduce GDP growth by one percent (equivalent to $178 billion based on 2015 GDP), reduce wages by one percent, and cost 311,000 full time jobs.

The Clinton campaign has failed to release specific details for many of her proposals, so it is likely her full list of tax hikes will have an even more drastic effect on the economy.

Because of this, the Tax Foundation’s analysis did not analyze the costs of Clinton’s proposed “Exit tax” on corporate inversions, her undefined business tax reform that her campaign claims will raise $275 billion, and her tax on stock trading.  

The Tax Foundation’s estimates of Clinton’s tax hike proposals can be found below:

Tax

Cost (over ten years)

Enact "Buffett Rule" 30 Percent Minimum Tax on Millionaires

$209 Billion

4 Percent Surtax on Taxpayers with Incomes over $5 Million

$95 Billion

Restore Estate Tax to 2009 Parameters

$76 Billion

Eliminate Deduction for Reinsurance Premiums Paid by Businesses

$2 Billion

Cap the Tax Value of Itemized Deductions at 28 Percent

$218 Billion

Adjusts the Schedule for
Long-Term Capital Gains

-$409 Billion

Total

$191 Billion

 

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